Bitcoin'southward (BTC) price activeness hasn't been bullish despite the $69,000 all-time loftier on Nov. 10. Some debate that th descending channel formed twoscore days ago is the dominant trend, and $56,000 marks its current resistance.

BTC/USD toll on FTX. Source: TradingView

Such bearishness follows scrutiny from United States regulators, later on a Nov. one report from the President'south Working Group on Fiscal Markets suggested that stablecoin issuers in the United States should exist field of study to "appropriate federal oversight," like to banks and savings associations.

On Nov. 12, the Bitcoin-backed exchange-traded fund (ETF) asking was rejected past the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To justify the denial, the regulator cited the lack of ability of its participants to deter fraud and market manipulation in Bitcoin trading.

More recently, on Nov. 23, the chair of the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs sent notices to multiple exchanges and stablecoin issuers. The questions on consumer and investor protection on stablecoins suggest that lawmakers may be preparing a hearing on the subject area.

Still, bulls might have a different have on such news every bit stablecoins are by no means necessary for Bitcoin to work. Furthermore, in that location's not much that the U.S. government can practise to suppress projects and developers willing to relocate exterior its jurisdiction.

Bitcoin options mostly bullish for Nov. 26'southward expiry

Despite the 17% pullback over the past xiv days from the $69,000 all-time loftier, the Bitcoin telephone call (purchase) options vastly dominate Nov. 26's expiry.

Bitcoin options aggregate open up interest for Nov. 26. Source: Bybt

At start sight, the $1.9 billion in call (buy) options boss the weekly expiry by 113% compared with the $885 meg in put (sell) instruments. But the 2.xiii call-to-put ratio is deceptive because the recent drop will likely wipe out 90% of the bullish bets.

For example, if Bitcoin's price remains below $58,000 at 8:00 am UTC on Nov. 26, only $150 1000000 worth of those telephone call (buy) options volition be available at the death. There is no value in the correct to buy Bitcoin at $60,000 or $70,000 if it's trading below that price.

Bears can secure a $365 million gain sub-$56k

Below are the 4 most probable scenarios based on the current toll action. For example, the data shows how many contracts will be available on November. 26 for both bulls (call) and acquit (put) instruments. The imbalance favoring each side represents the theoretical turn a profit:

  • Below $56,000: 720 calls vs. 7,490 puts. The net effect favors bear (put) options by $365 million.
  • Between $56,000 and $58,000: ii,630 calls vs. four,840 puts. The net outcome is $125 million favoring the bear (put) instruments.
  • Between $58,000 and $60,000: 3,600 calls vs. 3,850 puts. The net issue is counterbalanced.
  • Between $60,000 and $62,000: 6,180 calls vs. two,340 puts. The cyberspace event shifts favoring the call (balderdash) instruments past $230 million.

This crude approximate considers the call options used in bullish bets and put options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. Notwithstanding, a trader could accept sold a phone call option, finer gaining a negative exposure to Bitcoin above a specific cost. Unfortunately, there's no like shooting fish in a barrel way to estimate this outcome.

Bulls have double the incentives to defend $56,000

As displayed by the xl-day descending channel, bulls need to keep the $56,000 resistance to avoid farther losing momentum. Ane must keep in listen that it took less than 2 weeks to bring Bitcoin from $41,500 to $56,000 dorsum on Oct. 10. Therefore, maintaining this level is crucial to validate November. ten's all-time loftier.

Moreover, if bulls manage to push Bitcoin'southward price higher up $58,000, that will save them from a potential $365 million loss if BTC bears gain the upper manus on the dorsum of the regulatory winds. A mere 1.5% drop from the current $56,800 might give bears just enough confidence to instill fifty-fifty more pain.

The views and opinions expressed hither are solely those of the author and do non necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own enquiry when making a determination.